The chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the moon in December 2032 has been raised to 4.3% by NASA, thanks to data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Previously feared as a major Earth impact threat, the asteroid's odds of hitting the Moon have increased from 3.8%, following a refined path prediction using JWST's Near-Infrared Camera. Although the asteroid is currently too distant to observe from Earth, its recent appearance in May allowed scientists to recalculate its future orbit.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Deemed Safe by NASA for Earth Impact

According to NASA and findings by Andy Rivkin at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, even a direct impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 would not disrupt the Moon's orbit. Astronomer Pawan Kumar, formerly of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, also confirmed that the risk is minimal, as any debris from a collision would either stay on the Moon or disintegrate in Earth's atmosphere. Discovered in December 2023, the asteroid, roughly the size of a 10-story building, initially had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth, marking the highest probability for a large asteroid impact.

The asteroid gained global attention in early 2024 when it seemed to pose a threat to various regions, including the Pacific, South America, Africa, and Asia. While NASA ruled out tsunami risks, an airburst over a populated area could have caused minor damage by shattering windows. However, after thorough observation by February 24, the agency confirmed no danger, reducing the Earth impact likelihood to 0.004%.

Further data from telescopes in Chile and Hawaii revealed that asteroid 2024 YR4 originated in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter before transitioning into a near-Earth orbit. Although the asteroid is currently out of sight, it will become visible again in 2028, allowing scientists to study its physical properties and update trajectory predictions.

Despite being considered safe now, asteroid 2024 YR4 served as a practical exercise for planetary defense systems. Kumar highlighted that the asteroid was an ideal candidate for testing Earth's response to a genuine asteroid threat, offering valuable lessons for future preparedness from detection to global communication.