Volcanoes are unpredictable forces of nature. While many eruptions can be predicted based on warning signs like ground swelling or small earthquakes, some volcanoes erupt without any warning. These stealthy volcanoes pose a significant risk to nearby populations. Researchers at the University of Illinois have developed a model to explain why these volcanoes erupt without any detectable precursors.

One such volcano is Veniaminof in Alaska, which has erupted multiple times with little to no warning. The study led by Dr. Yuyu Li identified key internal conditions, such as low magma supply and warm host rock, that make eruptions from stealthy volcanoes more challenging to predict. These conditions are also found in other active volcanoes around the world, including Popocatépetl in Mexico, Merapi in Indonesia, and Stromboli in Italy.

Veniaminof is known for its frequent eruptions, with only a few instances where warning signs were observed. The volcano has produced several moderately sized explosive events that pose regional hazards without clear precursors. By studying the 2018 eruption of Veniaminof, researchers were able to simulate different volcanic conditions and understand the factors that lead to stealthy eruptions.

The study revealed that slow magma flow into a small chamber, combined with warm rock surrounding the chamber, can result in an eruption without any visible warning signs. This combination of factors makes it challenging for scientists to predict when a stealthy volcano will erupt. The shape and depth of the magma chamber also play a role in determining the type of warning signs that may be observed.

To improve monitoring of stealthy volcanoes like Veniaminof, researchers recommend integrating high-precision instruments like borehole tiltmeters and strainmeters, as well as using newer technologies like infrasound and gas emission monitoring. By combining these monitoring techniques with machine learning algorithms, scientists hope to enhance volcano forecasting and protect nearby communities from potential surprise eruptions.

Understanding the behavior of stealthy volcanoes is crucial for developing effective response strategies and mitigating the impact of these unpredictable eruptions. By studying the internal conditions and warning signs associated with stealthy volcanoes, scientists can improve monitoring systems and enhance early detection of eruptions.