Nintendo has already sold over 20% of its 15 million console shipment target for fiscal 2025 in just four days, indicating strong demand and challenging the company's conservative guidance. The Switch 2 has set a new record for initial sales in gaming history, surpassing both the original Switch and PlayStation 5.

With a massive user base of over 120 million Switch owners, Nintendo's attractive launch titles and upcoming games are expected to drive further adoption of the Switch 2. Despite the impressive sales figures, uncertainties surrounding tariffs could impact the company's future performance.

Currently, the fair value estimate for Nintendo stands at JPY 12,000. While the initial sales of the Switch 2 have exceeded expectations, the possibility of tariff hikes by the Trump administration poses a significant risk. Any increase in tariffs may force Nintendo to raise prices in the US, potentially leading to a slowdown in console shipments.

About 35%-40% of Nintendo's console shipments are destined for the US market and are manufactured in Vietnam. The looming threat of tariffs adds a layer of uncertainty to the company's outlook, making it crucial to monitor developments closely.