Israel's Strategy Towards Iran: A Risky Gamble for Regime Change

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Israeli leaders might hope Friday's strikes start a chain reaction leading to unrest that topples the Islamic Republic, writes Amir Azimi.

Israel's recent attacks on Iran may go beyond just targeting nuclear capabilities - there might be a hidden agenda of regime change in Tehran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes that these strikes will spark unrest leading to the fall of the Islamic Republic. The Iranian people are already discontent with economic conditions, lack of freedom, and minority rights.

The strikes have already taken out key Iranian military figures, posing a serious threat to Iran's leadership. Iran retaliated, escalating tensions further. Netanyahu's gamble is that these attacks will sow enough chaos to prompt a popular uprising. However, the outcome is uncertain, as the hardliners controlling Iran's military and economy may not be easily overthrown.

If the regime collapses, Iran could descend into chaos with far-reaching consequences for the region. Israel's ideal scenario would be a friendly force taking over, but the lack of a clear alternative poses a challenge. Opposition forces are fragmented, with no unified vision for a post-regime Iran.

Groups like the former crown prince Reza Pahlavi and the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) are potential contenders, but face internal and external challenges. The MEK, in particular, has a controversial history and mixed international support. While it's too early to predict the full impact of the recent attacks, Israel's hope for regime change in Iran remains a high-stakes gamble.



Source: BBC
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