Israel's sudden attack on Iran has raised concerns about oil supplies in the Middle East, shedding light on the recent move by the Opec+ cartel to boost crude production.

The Saudi Arabia-led producer group has taken the market by surprise this year by ramping up idled production despite falling crude prices. Speculation arose that this decision was influenced by White House pressure to increase output in anticipation of a confrontation with Iran.

While President Trump had hinted at military options if diplomacy with Iran failed and Israel openly advocated for strikes, experts believe that the decision to pump more oil was driven by a variety of factors.

After withholding supply for nearly three years to elevate prices, the producers found that the output cuts were losing their impact, prompting them to consider regaining market share by increasing production.

Moreover, certain Opec+ members, such as Kazakhstan, were exceeding their quotas, causing frustration for Saudi Arabia, the group's largest exporter. The kingdom had shouldered the majority of the cuts, reducing its output significantly.

Despite pressure from the US to constrain Iran's oil exports, Saudi Arabia was cautious about increasing crude production preemptively. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman was wary of repeating the mistake from 2018 when Opec+ boosted output at Trump's request, only for the US to grant waivers to Iranian oil importers.

If Saudi Arabia's recent production increase was influenced by the US, it may have been more about securing access to American technology than targeting Iran directly, according to experts.

While the surge in oil prices following Israel's attack on Iran may limit Trump's options in addressing geopolitical challenges, analysts suggest that the US could tap into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve if necessary.

With the SPR's capacity well below its maximum level due to previous drawdowns, Trump may also consider asking Saudi Arabia to further increase oil production, although this could pose challenges for Riyadh.

In the face of rising oil prices, presidents often turn to Saudi Arabia for assistance, but cautious responses from Riyadh and other Opec+ members are expected in light of the complex geopolitical landscape.