Despite Israel's threats to topple the Iranian regime, oil exports from the Middle East have not been disrupted by the escalating conflict, according to ship-tracking data analyzed by the Financial Times. The movement of vessels through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains unaffected, with about 21 million barrels of oil passing through the narrow waterway daily.

Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil at energy analytics firm Kpler, stated that attacks on energy infrastructure have been limited to domestic systems in both countries, reassuring the market. While Brent crude initially rose to over $78 a barrel, it has since dropped to just above $72.42, a 2.5% decrease from the peak.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent strikes on Iranian gas processing plants and fuel depots in Tehran have not targeted Iran's key oil export terminals on Kharg Island. Iran, in turn, has not sought to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders believe that Tehran is unlikely to block the strait despite historical threats to do so if attacked. Improved relations with Saudi Arabia and the need to keep exports flowing are seen as deterrents to such actions. The UK's Maritime Trade Office reported a slight decrease in cargo ships transiting the strait, but no signs of a blockade.

Analysts suggest that Iran may consider striking oilfields in Saudi Arabia and Iraq using drones as an alternative response. However, the likelihood of such actions remains low as no regional actor sees a benefit in targeting critical energy infrastructure.