Rep. Mikie Sherrill is considered the front-runner in the upcoming Democratic primary for governor of New Jersey. She has run an extensive ad campaign in the New York and Philadelphia metro areas, has the support of the party's establishment, and has led in recent polls. However, the primary remains uncertain due to limited polling and changes in the ballot layout that could affect the power of endorsements.

Sherrill's opponents have made progress, but their presence has divided the field, making it challenging for one candidate to emerge as a clear alternative. The state's political landscape plays a crucial role in this scenario.

South Jersey, below Mercer and Monmouth counties, is dominated by an old-school political machine supporting former state Sen. Steve Sweeney. However, this region accounts for only 30% of primary votes, and Sweeney's affiliation with the machine has been a drawback.

North Jersey, on the other hand, offers advantages to other candidates. Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is expected to perform well in the state's largest city and Essex County, which has a significant Black population. Baraka has also appealed to the progressive base, creating a potentially strong coalition.

Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Rep. Josh Gottheimer bring their strengths to the race, with Fulop focusing on left-wing themes and Gottheimer appealing to the middle. Gottheimer has faced setbacks in securing endorsements from major county organizations.

Despite the challenges, Sherrill has gained significant support from county machines in North Jersey, positioning her as a strong contender. The absence of the traditional party 'line' on the ballot adds an element of unpredictability to the primary.

While Sherrill appears to have broad support, the lack of recent polling and the changing dynamics of the race make the outcome uncertain. The history of New Jersey Democratic primaries may offer insights, but the current landscape suggests a competitive contest.