As the week ended on June 13, the Nifty 50 and Sensex experienced a decline, with several factors contributing to the market volatility. The upcoming week holds key triggers such as Israel-Iran news, the US Fed policy outcome, and the progress of the monsoon.

Market Recap

Last week, tensions between Israel and Iran, uncertainty around US tariff policies, and foreign capital outflows impacted the Indian stock market. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,718.60, down 0.68%, with top companies like HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, and ITC facing setbacks.

The Nifty 50 declined by 1.14%, while the Sensex fell by 1.30%. Despite this, the broader market outperformed, with the BSE Midcap index falling by 0.90% and the BSE Smallcap slipping by 0.13%.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, noted the heightened volatility in the market due to geopolitical tensions and global risk-off sentiment.

Key Triggers Ahead

• Israel-Iran News: Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with concerns about a broader conflict. The involvement of the US military and UK's military assets moving to the region add to the uncertainty.
• US FOMC Meeting: The US Federal Reserve meeting on June 17-18 will focus on interest rates amid tariff policy impact concerns. Recent inflation data show benign price increases.
• Crude Oil Prices: Brent Crude surged by 7% on Friday, impacting India as a major importer. Higher prices may lead to a trade deficit, rupee depreciation, and inflation risks.
• FPIs' Movement: Foreign portfolio investors have been selling Indian equities in June, impacting market performance.
• Macro Meter: Key macroeconomic data releases, including WPI Inflation, trade balance data, eurozone CPI, and US initial jobless claims, will be closely watched by investors.

Additional factors like the progress of the monsoon, G-7 summit, Bank of Japan's policy decision, and trade deals will also influence market trends in the upcoming week.