2024 YR4, once considered a high-risk asteroid for Earth, is now in the spotlight for a potential collision with the Moon in 2032. NASA has updated its projections using data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), indicating a slightly higher chance of impact.

The latest observations from the JWST's Near-Infrared Camera, led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, have increased the estimated probability of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%. NASA notes that impact probabilities may change as more data becomes available and assures that a Moon collision would not affect its orbit.

Earth Safe, Moon Unharmed

Astronomers worldwide agree with NASA's assessment that a Moon collision poses no threat to Earth. Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, explains that any debris from the impact would disintegrate in Earth's atmosphere before reaching the planet.

Discovered in December 2024, 2024 YR4 is comparable in size to a 10-story building, measuring between 53 and 67 meters long. Initially, the asteroid raised concerns with a projected 1% chance of Earth impact, peaking at 3.1%. Despite worries about potential damage, NASA confirmed that it would not cause catastrophic tsunamis.

A Test Case for Planetary Defense

As more data became available, NASA declared Earth safe from 2024 YR4, with a minimal impact probability of 0.004%. The asteroid's likely origin in the main asteroid belt suggests it poses no future threat to Earth.

Although currently not visible, scientists plan to track 2024 YR4 when it reappears in 2028 to refine its orbit and study its characteristics. This asteroid has become a valuable learning opportunity for planetary defense strategies, showcasing global readiness for potential space threats.

While Earth is no longer at risk, the Moon could face an unexpected encounter in 2032.