The Federal Reserve's decision is looming, and the likelihood of a rate change is minimal, indicating that no immediate adjustments are expected. However, this scenario could alter based on the Fed's communication today, although policymakers seem inclined to monitor the trade war's progression before making any decisions.

The current market sentiment suggests a mere 1.2% probability of a rate cut during the upcoming meeting, but this figure jumps to 14.8% for the July 30 session. The real intrigue lies in September, with a significant 74.8% chance of a rate decrease. By October, a rate cut is fully anticipated, with a 21% probability of a second cut by then. Looking towards the year-end, there is a total of 47 basis points priced in for easing, hinting at the potential for up to two cuts based on recent economic data trends.

Looking further ahead, the market is currently projecting 107 basis points in easing by September 2026. These estimations are subject to change based on the Fed's dot plot, although any adjustments are likely to be temporary.