Reform UK has seen a significant surge in popularity, taking a nine-point lead over Labour according to a recent Ipsos poll. The survey revealed that Reform currently holds 34% of the vote share, surpassing Labour's 25%.

If a general election were to take place soon, Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, would likely become the next prime minister. This rise in popularity has led to the lowest-ever recorded vote share for the Conservatives at 15% and the highest-ever for Reform.

The poll, which surveyed 1,180 individuals, indicates a decline in Labour's popularity since their significant victory in the 2024 general election. Only 19% of respondents expressed satisfaction with Labour's performance, while 73% were dissatisfied.

Notably, 54% of Labour voters and 48% of Tory voters have shifted their support, with a considerable number of defectors moving towards Reform. If this trend continues, the Conservatives would have just 10 seats, while Labour would see a significant reduction from 403 to 140.

Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK politics at Ipsos, highlighted the disappointment with Labour among voters, even those who supported the party in 2024. The lack of perceived progress on key issues such as the cost of living, immigration, and public services has contributed to this sentiment.

Earlier this month, Reform faced internal turmoil when Zia Yusuf, brought in by Nigel Farage to professionalize the party, resigned following a dispute with the newest MP, Sarah Pochin. Yusuf, a Muslim businessman, referred to Pochin as "dumb" after she questioned the legality of women wearing the burqa in the UK during Prime Minister's Questions. After facing backlash for his remarks, Yusuf announced his resignation, only to return to the party in a different role two days later.