According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), conditions are favorable for the Southwest monsoon to advance over central and adjoining eastern India by around 14 June. This comes after a slow progress in the past week.

The Southwest monsoon has already covered southern states, parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and the entire Northeast. This advancement is crucial for kharif sowing, as it is expected to intensify with the upcoming rains in central India and other regions of the country. Monsoon rains are essential for India, as they contribute nearly 70% of the annual rainfall, with about 45% of the sowing area dependent on irrigation from rains.

The Southwest monsoon made an early arrival, hitting the Kerala coast on 24 May, eight days before the normal date, and Mumbai on 26 May, 16 days ahead of schedule. However, progress has been slow over the past week.

In the latest update, the IMD forecasts light to moderate rainfall in certain areas over the next seven days. Thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds are expected in various regions including Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Bihar. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely in certain areas during this period.

Heat wave conditions are expected to persist in Northwest India, particularly severe heat wave conditions in West Rajasthan until 12 June. The IMD also predicts heat wave conditions in East Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and other regions during 10-13 June.

The IMD anticipates an active phase of the monsoon with heavy to very heavy rainfall in south peninsular India and extremely heavy rainfall in isolated areas from 12-16 June. Light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected in regions like Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan, and Goa on 10 and 11 June.