An asteroid discovered in 2024, previously considered a threat to Earth, now has a 1-in-23 chance of impacting the Moon in 2032, according to updated NASA estimates based on JWST data.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted on December 27, 2024. Initially, there was concern about a potential collision with Earth on December 22, 2032, with a 1 percent chance. Subsequent observations briefly raised this to 3.1 percent, making it one of the most dangerous space objects known.

Fortunately, as more data came in, the likelihood of an Earth impact decreased significantly to around 0.004 percent. However, the Moon is now at risk.

Dr. Andrew Rivkin, a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins University, explained that while the odds of hitting Earth have decreased, the chances of hitting the Moon have increased to 4.3 percent. This means there is a better than 96 percent probability of missing the Moon, but if it were to collide, it would be a remarkable event.

Despite the excitement surrounding the possibility of the asteroid striking the Moon, NASA reassures that it would not affect the Moon's orbit. Although the asteroid is currently too distant for observation, NASA plans to monitor it closely as it approaches Earth in 2028.

Richard Moissl, head of ESA's Planetary Defence Office, highlighted that the impact would be visible from Earth, potentially resulting in new lunar meteorites reaching our planet. He also mentioned the creation of a new observable crater on the Moon as a fascinating outcome.

While the asteroid's trajectory is being closely monitored, the exact path will become clearer as it nears Earth, providing astronomers with a better understanding of its potential impact on the Moon.